Most Americans haven't thought long and hard about surviving a major disaster. The reason for this is that major disasters are seen as rare, "tail risks" that happen infrequently. But when they do take place, the impact is unmistakable and potentially terminal.

In addition to living life according to normalized expectations, it's important to be aware of and prepare for tail risks in case they do happen. And if you look back at history, major turning points-many of which can be seen as tragic-happen more frequently than most people think.

The dollar is losing its status as the world reserve currency, and a false flag awaits us. There's a major disaster just around every corner. To obsess over the next potential disaster may be considered an unhealthy form of paranoia. But to ignore them completely and remain unprepared is to actively pursue fragility. Always be prepared. It's better to mistake a stone for a bear than a bear for a stone.